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Prediction for CME (2020-05-26T00:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-05-26T00:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15535/-1
CME Note: Speculative source location is a brightening at the edge of the northern extension of the southern polar coronal hole. A faint ripple is visible in the western streamer in C2/C3 but this was not used for measuring. Shock arrival time description from Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: I think it is a flux rope followed by a high speed stream. I can see a magnetic field red-component rotation with polarity south-to-north. The blue y-component is mostly south. The solar wind speed within the structure is increasing, a signature of compression and also consistent with the changes in the red z-magnetic field component at the front of the structure. The structure is followed by an increase in magnetic field, proton temperature and solar wind speed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-05-29T22:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-05-30T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/15537/1
Model Inputs:
2020-05-26T00:39:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=266.0, HalfAngle=18.0, Time21.5=2020-05-26T15:13Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2020-05-30T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =12.0 (+- 8 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200526_151300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 76.27 hour(s)
Difference: -2.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eframir Franco (GSFC) on 2020-05-26T17:44Z

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